14
May
I’m in Turkey at the moment, actually on holiday, but I find it physically impossible to be in a foreign country and not be instantly absorbed by its political economy. Even a very brief period here in Istanbul has reconfirmed my feeling that SA’s foreign policy is totally misplaced — not an entirely surprising eventuality. I can’t help feeling that countries like Turkey are so much more important and interesting for SA than being part of the Brics group (Brazil, Russia, India and China).
Turkey is larger, more developed and more central to European and Asian affairs, but its similarities with SA are very obvious if you just look around a bit. For a start, Turkey and SA are members, if you can call it that, of the “fragile five” — countries with a dangerously large fiscal deficit. Like SA, agriculture is crucial to the Turkish economy; it has a large and developing motor manufacturing sector; and its tourism sector is booming. Its natural resources are more in gas than minerals, but its financial sector is much more developed than its economy. It has always had a strong clothing sector, but that is under immense pressure from … guess. The overlaps are amazing.
Compare that with SA’s similarities with the “Bric” nations. Or don’t, because there are so few. I think that when SA thinks of the Brics grouping, it thinks of itself as part of a grand anti-Western alliance and being an integral part of the defining new world order. But when the Brics nations think of us, they see only one thing: customer. And it’s not even as though SA is the actual customer; SA is just a stepping stone to the last unexplored consumer market there is on the planet.
Even the politics of Turkey has eerie parallels with SA. Turkey is facing a massive influx of Syrian refugees, as some countries in the Arab world disintegrate. The quick changes in regional politics have introduced new challenges to Turkish diplomacy which it is handling with difficulty. Turkey’s diplomacy in the past has been focused on European Union accession and minding its own business. But suddenly, Turkey is being called on to reacquaint itself with its Ottoman history as a serious regional player. Interestingly, the desire to join the EU appears to be on the wane. It seems too, Turks unexpectedly have a lot of sympathy for the woes of their traditional rival and neighbour Greece. Only a decade ago, it was there too.
The other similarity between SA and Turkey is a government in its third term bleeding support. Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in power for a decade, and the telltale signs of creeping arrogance are everywhere, including the absurd attempts to close down Twitter. Journalists have been jailed, the reserve bank governor has been severely criticised (for, what else, refusing to drop interest rates despite rising inflation), and even judges have been arrested. It all makes the ANC’s blotting out cellphone usage in Parliament seem rather tame, but the essential tendency is the same: the inexorable slide of an ageing political order toward stifling authoritarianism.
Like the ANC, Erdogan has much to be proud of. The Turkish economy was in dire straits in the early 2000s, but it has since tripled in size under his AKP party. National debt is low, banks are strong, and it’s physically difficult to move on the main shopping street, Istiklal Caddesi. There have been all kinds of dire warnings from the rating agencies, but it’s not visible on the streets of Istanbul. The hotels and restaurants are full, and just getting into the city’s fabulous tourist attractions is a bit of a mission.
The country also has a whole new set of billionaires, many of whom have strong links to the ruling party, and this, it turns out, is causing some resentment. What a surprise.
The point is that you can imagine an interesting and fruitful interaction between SA and Turkey that would not necessarily involve being the patsy buyer for expensive equipment SA cannot really afford.
Source: http://www.rdm.co.za/politics/2015/05/11/forget-brics-we-should-cosy-up-to-turkey