13
Oct
The international stage could soon be looking different, in terms of power, in few years from now. Synchronous with the shift in power among nation-states, is the relative increase of influence among non-state actors—including businesses, tribes, religious organizations, and criminal networks. The players are changing but so is the game and so are the scopes of transnational issues important for continued global prosperity. Playing an important role on this emerging global front are the Non-Western powers. The camp run by US is already losing its strategic foothold in Eurasia and under serious setbacks in ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy. The real Asia pivot is driven by rapidly rising economies, especially China, as countries with major oil and gas reserves such as Russia and Iran are already turning eastward.
In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way—roughly from West to East—is without precedent in modern history. This shift derives from two sources. First, increases in oil and commodity prices have generated windfall profits for the Gulf States and Russia. With high oil and gas prices, major exporters such as Russia and Iran will substantially augment their levels of national power. Secondly, lower costs combined with government policies have shifted the locus of manufacturing and some service industries to Asia. The BRICS nations indicate they will collectively match the original G-7’s share of global GDP by 2040-2050.
With America’s constant quest for global hegemony and encroachment into Eurasia, a significant alliance seems to be budding between China, Russian and Iran to act as a barrier against the United States. The Chinese are facing U.S. encroachment from East Asia and the Pacific. Moreover the US has been skeptical of China’s phenomenal rise and increasing military capabilities. The Iranians primarily face U.S. encroachment in Southwest Asia along with US sanctions against Iran. Currently, the sanctions include an embargo on dealings with Iran by the United States, and a ban on selling aircraft and repair parts to Iranian aviation companies. And, the cold war between Russia and US should not surprise anyone! But the recent tensions over Ukraine crisis have further intensified the animosity between the countries. Primarily Russia faces U.S. encroachment in Eastern Europe. All three states also face U.S. encroachment in Central Asia and are wary of the U.S. and NATO’s intentions.
Most scholars and analysts correctly try to avoid the simplistic fallacies of geographical determinism. Yet, the role of geography should not be overlooked in the course of human development. Here, Iran can be characterized as a geo-strategic pivot. The entire geo-political equation in Eurasia will change on the basis of Iran’s political orbit. Should Iran ally with the United States and become hostile to Beijing and Moscow, it could seriously destabilize Russia and China and wreak havoc on both nations. This would be due to its ethno-cultural, linguistic, economic, religious, and geo-political links to the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Iran could also become the greatest conduit for U.S. influence and expansion in the Caucasus and Central Asia, because Iran is the gateway to Russia’s soft southern underbelly (or “Near Abroad”) in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In such a scenario, Russia as an energy corridor would effectively be upset and challenged as Washington would unlock Iran’s potential as the primal energy corridor for the Caspian Sea Basin and advocate for Iranian pipelines. Part of Russia’s success as an energy transit route has been due to American efforts to weaken Iran by preventing energy from transiting through Iranian territory. If Iran changed camps, the Chinese economy and China’s national security would also be held hostage on two counts. Chinese energy security would be threatened directly because Iranian energy reserves would no longer be secure and subject to U.S. geo-political interests.
Additionally, Central Asia could also re-orient its orbit, if Washington opens a direct and enforced conduit from the open seas via Iran. Thus, both Russia and China want a strategic alliance with Iran as a means of screening them from the geo-political encroachment of Washington.
But not like US’s demand is a contradiction when placed against the demands of Russia or China. Presently, crafting a successful foreign policy toward Iran is something which President Obama should consider. Contrary to the course of development, closer US-Iran relations have the potential to yield mutual strategic advantages for both the countries. The security and stability of Middle-East, a region which pleases US quite positively, simply cannot be achieved without Iranian involvement and this realization has already been acknowledged by US policy makers. No longer, the policy of containment should be channelized towards Iran, nor should Iran be neglected for its extreme geographic hold.
With three decades of effective Iranian isolation and a lack of formal diplomatic ties between the US and Iran, turning a blind eye to current challenging circumstances could prove out to be futile for US. Till date, not only has US policy towards Iran failed to set itself on a constructive path, but it has time and again missed opportunities to improve relations and in the course of hostile US policy towards Iran has not only been self-defeating but also detrimental for internal Iranian politics. Meanwhile among the countries in West, UK has boosted the momentum of the diplomatic success with Iran open by stating that Iran is an important country in a volatile region and maintaining embassies around the world, even under difficult conditions is a central pillar of the UK’s global diplomatic approach.
As the second largest country in the Middle East, Iran shares territorial borders with countries of great interest to the US, as well as former Soviet Satellite countries very much under the influence and reach of the Kremlin. However, despite of benefits of closer ties with Russia, Iran’s objective in resolving the nuclear dispute is to fix its economy with western finance, investment and technology. Tying itself to a faltering Russian economy with its own set of sanctions could be testing for Iran.But, Iran has been subjected to devastating expansionist wars from regional and world powers. Hence, Tehran’s apprehensiveness towards US is also justified, considering how hostile relations have been between the countries in Middle East and US, which are indicative of the fact that the chances of Iran allying with US are bleak. Iran is a target of U.S. hostility not just for its vast energy reserves and natural resources, but because of major geo-strategic considerations that make it a strategic springboard for Russia and China.
Even after considerable amount of friction, US is aware of the fact that improved relations with Iran have intense advantages and is prepared to use the means available to boost the positive momentum surrounding the détente with Tehran. There is now an opportunity for the US to build credibility in the region and the foundation for a stable ally in the Middle East that will respect the human rights and integrity of its citizens but somewhere the US government is still caught in a web of self-deception. With immense consensus at all levels of public discourse is shaping against such US policies. Emerging economic powerhouses have started contemplating about the future of global financial power play as well as the immediate need to enhance cooperation and to restructure the global political and economic order. Today the globe is in the middle of an economic war, while a system of global governance is also being put in place to avert a global war over resources via political and economic takeovers. Each and every group is trying to maximize their share of global control and resources in an evolving system of global governance. And alliance between Beijing, Moscow and Tehran if developed will be high on global power and truly a nightmare for US and allies.
Source: http://www.newdelhitimes.com/americas-nightmare-triple-entente-between-iran-russia-china123/